For paid subscribers: retail coffee prices have soared in recent years, driven by climbing commodity costs and tariff stupidity. Those pressures have now eased, and yet retail prices continue to rise. Will they ever come down?
Meteorologists are predicting that an exceptionally strong El Niño will likely form in 2026. If past events are any indication, the impacts on coffee could be profound.
For paid subscribers: retail coffee prices have soared in recent years, driven by climbing commodity costs and tariff stupidity. Those pressures have now eased, and yet retail prices continue to rise. Will they ever come down?
The CEO of Nestlé said an interesting thing recently. Philipp Navratil was at a conference in Paris, and he described 2026 coffee and cocoa commodity prices as “favourable” compared to last year. He’s not wrong—the coffee futures market has been falling for months.
“That’s why you should expect margins to be higher and improving through the year as those better costs in those two commodities are coming through,” Navratil said. Basically, the falling C price is enabling Nestlé to make more money.
Now, we all know about the high coffee prices of the past two years. The futures market began rising in 2024 and hit record levels in 2025, driven by climate shocks and Donald Trump’s ludicrous tariff policies. In the United States, tariff fees were mainly passed on from importers to their customers. In response, coffee companies raised prices.
The U.S. has seen huge jumps in the cost of coffee at grocery stores, and it’s not alone. Retail prices in Brazil jumped nearly 40% in just a few months last year. While less dramatic, prices have also risen across Europe, in the U.K. and Australia.
But many of the reasons for those price hikes have now eased. The coffee C price has been falling for months, mainly due to forecasts of a bumper crop in Brazil. Trump removed tariffs on coffee in November, and companies have begun the process of getting refunds.
However, retail prices aren’t falling in response. Why is that?
For paid subscribers: Eight years ago, the media got very excited about a patent for a drone that could monitor and deliver coffee to the those it deemed under-caffeinated. It never became reality—why not?
For paid subscribers: Naming a coffee company is tricky, and choosing the wrong one can result in controversy. Just ask Bad Ass Coffee of Hawaii.
Chatbots telling us what we want. Robots making our coffee. Baristas reduced to smiling servers. If Starbucks and other brands get their way, this is the future: a frictionless, interactionless, lifeless coffee experience.
For paid subscribers: A fascinating academic paper delves into the ways Korean Buddhists, after centuries of drinking tea, have started to embrace coffee.
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